Some serious fun is being had on the Aussie share market at the moment.
Everybody is a genius, and this time it’s different of course. I have seen this all before and I’m not even that old in terms of market madness and cycles of boom to bust.
Historically the dumb money will flow into the market and into the pockets of smart money before there is any end to the festivities but there are few guarantees in the markets except that humans are still the same emotional and irrational beings.
To borrow a Greenspan saying – “History counsels caution.”
1979 The year lotto started. Nobody won division 1 which was $384,975. Back then it was 6 from 40. Today it’s 6 from 45.
1 in 8,145,060 The chance of winning the big one in Lotto.
$27 million What is could have cost Julius Caesar to win his first Division 1 prize. Born 100BC, if on his 18th birthday he began buying 300 Powerball tickets weekly, with 50 draws a year, he could expect to win his first Division 1 prize in 3583AD.
$128.3 billion The amount Australians gambled last year.
70% of this total was spent on poker machines.
2.5 million The number of different screens a typical poker machine with five reels and 35 icons can display. If you played the machine for eight hours each and every day, with five seconds between spins, it could be over eight years before you saw the same screen twice.
1 in 5 The chance of winning cash with a typical $5 Scratchie.
98.8% The chance that you won’t win more than $12 on a typical $5 Scratch lotto.
Money Magazine, October 2004.